SW Monsoon to pick up force around July 5: IITM Pune

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Pune, June 29, 2014: A research forecast by the Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), suggests that monsoon will revive after July 5, and move forward.  The SW- Southwest monsoon, though 40 per cent deficient at the moment, is likely to gather steam once again around July 5. The much-needed rainfall will aid crop sowing in vast tracts of India.

“For the next five days, there is no movement. There may be some movement afterwards towards the next weekend,” a scientist at the India Meteorological Department told media representatives, seconding the IITM assessment. As per the latest India Met Department -IMD data, India as a whole is 40 per cent deficient in seasonal rainfall.

But a region-wise break-up clearly illustrates that central India is the worst hit (minus 57 per cent) followed by northwest India (minus 48 per cent). East India fared better because of last week’s rain.

After hitting the Kerala coast on June 6, the Southwest monsoon progressed northwards till June 19 covering large tracts of southern and eastern India. “It is stagnant for the last nine days, which is not unusual in a below normal monsoon year,” said the IMD scientist.  Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 29 have received either deficient (shortage between 20 and 59 per cent) or scanty (shortage between 60 and 99 per cent) rainfall.

If the trend continues beyond the first week of July, it would be a matter of concern as that is the sowing time for paddy, pulses, sugarcane, cotton and oil seeds, said another scientist.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday reviewed the monsoon situation. IMD officials briefed him on the monsoon’s progress and how they hope the situation would improve in July and August to make up for the deficiency.

IMD had given a “below normal” forecast for the 2014 monsoon season in which India is expected to receive 93 per cent of average rainfall. An agriculture ministry official on Friday said the sowing area for summer crops (kharif) has crossed 131 lakh hectare.  It includes rice (22 lakh ha), pulses (4.3 lakh ha) and coarse cereals (19.5 lakh ha). The planting of sugarcane and cotton is in progress. People feel it is also better to have a wide spread recourse to ’prayer’ to over come this problem of nature?