Surge of Safron in Kerala worries Cong and the Left parties

Mangalore Today/ PTI

Kerala, May 08: After closing its doors to Hindutva politics for decades, Kerala seems to be opening up to the saffron party. Much to the discomfort of the traditional parties in the state, support for the BJP appears to be swelling. Caste and community equations may still block them from winning many seats but at least for the time being, the BJP is seen as a third credible force that can emerge as an alternative, especially in the wake of Aam Aadmi Party’s failure to make an impressive entry there.

 

For the BJP and Amit Shah, getting good numbers from Kerala is as crucial as the party’s victory in Assam. After losing Bihar and Delhi, both Shah and Prime Minister Modi have to score electoral victories to regain some sheen.

Had there been no Dadri or campaign on love jihaad and ghar wapsi, the party would have found more fans in the state. The killing of Akhlaq in Dadri, the controversy over the beef ban and the overplayed rhetoric over `Bharat Mata ki Jai’ have antagonised large numbers of Malayali youth, but the Hindu youth still seem to be ready to bet on the BJP and Narendra Modi in particular.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, it was Modi’s image that got the BJP votes from the youth among Hindus and Christians too. The BJP had managed a 15 per cent vote share in the local body polls held six months ago despite these controversies. Its vote share has been on a steady incline-- from 4.75 per cent in 2006 to 6.06 per cent in 2011 and 10.3 per cent in 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Of course, factors which influence local body elections are distinct from those during assembly polls. To be sure, the RSS has been active in Kerala for decades but it never could turn its organisational strength to votes in the state.

The BJP received a shot in the arm when it roped in tribal leader C K Janu and the SNDP, a prominent organisation of the second largest community in the state, the Ezhavas. Sensing the scope of its prospective growth, the national leadership of the BJP has left no stone unturned to keep up the momentum. Given the population ratio, a unique one in the country with 26.56 per cent Muslims and Christians 18.38 per cent according to the 2011 Census, the party leadership realises that penetration is tough. Age and character of the vote base is another issue for a new front to grow - voters hesitate to move away from traditional voting patterns and are reluctant to experiment. So the BJP is treading carefully.

No controversial issues including the beef ban or nationalist slogans are being mentioned at poll meetings. The party has put up a moderate face as its leader for the Kerala youth and is trying to take advantage of the growing feeling among Hindus that they have got an unfair deal from the UDF which they feel is dominated by influential Christian and Muslims. The LDF has had Hindu leaders at the top but some Hindus, who constitute 54.73 per cent of the total population, want to see change.

Even in central Kerala, considered to be a Christian belt, Hindu pockets flaunt their loyalty to the saffron flag. In such pockets, posters and banners of BJP candidates alone are seen. “The BJP candidate here may not win because Catholics are not voting for the BJP. But we will ensure a good showing,” said Sunil, who works in a coffee house in Pala town of Kottayam district. “In our locality (where Hindus live in large numbers), the BJP candidate will get 80 per cent votes,” he claimed.

The BJP is keen to exploit the disenchantment among voters with both the LDF and the UDF in Kerala’s bipolar politics. Many voters feel that neither front has a vision or the strong leadership to take the state forward -- they feel it has stagnated after its progress in social indicators. However, the voters are equally dissatisfied with the BJP’s state leadership. “There is no promising leader in the state BJP. Moreover, they get into cheap factionalism and none of them has been able to give a vision for the state,” Pradeep Pillai, a student in Pala said.

Recent developments such as the gruesome murder of a Dalit girl in Perumbavur in Ernakulam and the rape of a teenager in Varkala in Trivandrum, have intensified anger towards the ruling party. Many neutral voters do not see much difference between the Congress and the Left. The BJP wants to ensure it does everything to cash in on the disaffection. Party chief Amit Shah has appointed a three-member team to look into "atrocities on Dalit women". Modi could visit Perumbavur , but there is no confirmation so far.