Third Covid-19 wave unlikely in India, if no new variants emerge

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, Sep 07, 2021: Unless hit hard by a new Covid variant, chances of a third wave battering India are now slim, leading public health experts say. And a deep dive into available data reinforces the optimism, for now at least.

 

The country has encountered no new lineage of the new coronavirus so far after Delta wreaked havoc earlier this year.

A wave occurs when there is a huge surge of an infectious disease. India has faced two waves so far -- the first in August-September of 2020 and the second starting March this year.

“If there is no significantly faster spreading mutant, the third wave will be a ripple,” according to Manindra Agrawal, a professor at Kanpur’s IIT.

Prof Agrawal and two other experts authored the SUTRA model that tracks the progression of Covid-19 in India. SUTRA stands for a susceptible-undetected-tested (positive)-removed approach.

The model, the authors say, explicitly accounts for the fact that there would be large numbers of undetected asymptomatic patients. It also takes into account the spatial spread of a pandemic over time, through a parameter called "reach."

Prof Agrawal told India Today that chances of a third wave looked slim now. With the Kerala numbers expected to improve, he said, the Covid situation would look much better in the country.

PARAMETERS FUEL OPTIMISM

An analysis by India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit concurs with expert assessment.

The DIU analysis shows that the test positivity rate (TPR), a key indicator of how widespread the transmission is, rose beyond 20 per cent during April-May 2021, but has settled down to around 2.5 per cent now.

As per the WHO guidelines, a TPR below five for a sustainable period means the transmission is much slower. The TPR in India has been around for two weeks now.

The case fatality rate has also receded to the pre-second-wave levels of below one per cent. The reproduction value, though, is still hovering around one. The calculations of the case fatality rate and the TPR are based on seven-day moving averages of daily cases, daily deaths, and daily testing.

A SHOT IN THE ARM

Besides, India’s rapid pace of vaccination is expected to come to rescue even if a new mutation arrives.

“In a recent work on immunity provided by vaccination, it is shown that a vaccinated person who gets infected, sheds viral load for about half the period than an unvaccinated person,” Prof Agrawal said.

India has administered over 70 crore doses so far and more than 56 per cent of the eligible population has been administered by at least one dose.

Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Karnataka are some of the major states that have at least partially inoculated more than 70 per cent of their adult population.

Courtesy:India Today