BJP Hopes Gujarati ‘Asmita’ Would Overcome Development Gaps

Mangalore Today News Network

Apr 01, 2019: Make no mistake! The average Gujarati is proud of the fact that one of their ilk is occupying the highest political office in India and another controls one of the two major political parties of the country. And this is precisely the ‘Asmita’ that the BJP is banking on for an encore from the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his confidante Amit Shah.

Therefore, it is of little surprise that the BJP would be looking to maximise its gains, much the same way that it did in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when the party got elected all 26 lawmakers that the state sends to the Lower House. There is also the small matter of the BJP holding power in the state for the past 21 years, of which 13 years saw Modi at the helm.

As for the opposition Congress, they are hoping that the momentum of the last Assembly Polls in 2017 where they won 77 seats (their best show in three decades) would give them at least eight seats in the northern Gujarat and Saurashtra belt and maybe a couple more from the rest of the state where the BJP has fielded new candidates.

The state, which goes to polls on April 23 in a single day polling process, has ignored the Congress for more than two decades and it was the first time in 2017 that the BJP was limited to less than 100 seats in the 182-member legislative assembly. While the Congress can take heart from this performance, the question is does the situation remain unchanged today? 

Economist and political analyst Ghanshyam Shah, a keen observer of Gujarat politics, feels there is discontent against the BJP, in spite of all the chest-thumping jingoism in the aftermath of the Balakot airstrikes and the anti-Pak sloganeering. “The BJP has an upper hand, but it won’t be able to repeat the 2014 clean sweep. My calculation puts the party at 15-16 seats with the rest going to Congress. These numbers are based on the 2017 assembly figures as well as the BJP’s internal struggles over ticket distribution,” says Shah.

Countering this view, Dr N. Jayachandran, a member of the panel of doctors for the Gujarat Governor and a BJP supporter, says the situation has improved post April 2018 and local issues would decide the 2019 outcome. “What plays in the minds of the Gujarati voter is the ‘asmita’ or the spirit of Gujarat. When you have the PM and the President of the ruling party from the state, the voters would support them,” says Jayachandran, who predicts 21 seats for BJP.

Opinion is again divided over whether the Gujarati would vote for the spirit of Gujarat or for economic issues such as lack of jobs, rising prices of essential commodities. The Bullet Train project may help the rich, but what about those who need to buy onions at five times the cost of 2014, asks Shah while accepting that Gujarati voters do not have political allegiance.

And this is where the Congress and the rest of the opposition is missing a trick. They have not only failed to present an alternative to the ruling party’s narrative, their efforts to converge the non-BJP votes have at best been half-hearted. With Sharad Pawar’s NCP stating that they would contest all 26 seats, even north Gujarat and Saurashtra appear dicey.

Efforts to get the Patidars to oppose the BJP following Hardik Patel’s agitation for reservation also appears to have evaporated in recent times, least of all from the impact of  the High Court’s refusal to stay the conviction order against the leader in a rioting case. Prime Minister Modi initiated the process of reconciliation by laying the foundation stone earlier in March for the Rs.1000 crore Umiya Dham, developed by the Kadva Patidhar community.

While the absence of a committed cadre and a crisis of leadership in the state could impact the Congress, its arch-rival too is facing problems of dissidence. Following the defection of four Congress MLAs to its fold, the local party cadre has been a discontented lot, for they believe that these leaders had anyways lost people’s goodwill.

Courtesy:Yahoo.com