BJP’s stunning Haryana hat trick, National Conference’s big Jammu and Kashmir win

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, October 9, 2024: The BJP came back from behind on Tuesday to stop Congress’s celebrations on its tracks and snatch an incredible win for a historic third term in Haryana, defying exit polls’ predictions. Jammu and Kashmir, too, turned all projections on its head as the state handed a big win to the National Conference-Congress alliance; Farooq Abdullah tapped his son, Omar Abdullah, as the next Chief Minister.

The BJP won 48 of 90 seats in Haryana; the majority mark stands at 46. The Congress won 37 seats.

No party has won a third consecutive term in Haryana since its inception in 1966. Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), once a powerhouse in Haryana, won two seats, while the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which aligned with the BJP in 2019, failed to open its account.

In Jammu and Kashmir, where elections to the 90-member Assembly were held for the first time in a decade, the Congress-NC combine won 48 seats, while the BJP secured 29 seats.

Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) bagged three seats. In something of a surprise, AAP’s Mehraj Malik won in Doda.

NC leader Omar Abdullah, who won in Budgam and Ganderbal constituencies, took a jab at the BJP, saying "those who sought to destroy us were decimated instead". Asked about government formation, he said to wait till results were fully declared.

The possibility of a hung assembly in the Union Territory has opposition parties apprehensive that the five Lieutenant Governor-nominated MLAs could play a decisive role in government formation.

Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana Assembly elections: 10 points

1. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the people of Haryana have scripted history by giving a third consecutive term to the BJP. "After five years and in the last three elections, it has not happened. It is the first time that a government has managed to get 2 terms and win a third one. The people of Haryana not only made us win but gave us more seats and more vote share. They wholeheartedly voted for us," PM Modi said.

 PM Modi also congratulated National Conference (NC) for winning elections in Jammu and Kashmir. "Peaceful elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir, votes were counted and results were declared and this is the victory of the Indian Constitution and democracy. The people of Jammu and Kashmir gave the mandate to the NC alliance, I congratulate them too. If we look at the vote share percentage, BJP has emerged as the biggest party in Jammu and Kashmir," he added.

    In Haryana, where exit polls predicted a clean sweep for the Congress, the party’s missteps like banking heavily on Jat stalwart Bhupinder Singh Hooda and the sidelining of Dalit leader Kumari Selja may have cost it the election.

2. The consolidation of non-Jat votes by the BJP hurt the Congress further. The grand old party focused its efforts on wooing the Jat community and neglected the politically consequential Ahirwal belt, which comprises urban and industrial centres Gurugram, Faridabad, Rewari and Mahendragarh.

3. The BJP appears set to improve on its 2019 performance, when it won 40 seats and had to partner with the JJP. A key factor that could have contributed to this success is the party’s strategy of fielding fresh candidates and expanding outreach to Other Backward Class (OBC) and Scheduled Caste (SC) communities.

4. Nayab Singh Saini is being credited as the key architect behind the BJP’s success in Haryana. After replacing Manohar Lal Khattar as Chief Minister, Saini, an OBC, became the face of the BJP’s poll campaign. His leadership is seen as instrumental in overcoming anti-incumbency and securing the party’s third consecutive term in the state.

5. In Jammu and Kashmir, where a photo finish was predicted by most exit polls, the National Conference staged a sensational comeback. The party won 41 seats and is leading in one, while ally Congress bagged six seats.

    NC chief Farooq Abdullah expressed confidence about forming the government and said, "It will not be ’police raj’ here but ’logon ka raj’ here."

6. The BJP dominated the Jammu region but posted a dismal performance in the Kashmir Valley. Despite the central government’s five-year push to transform the region into a ’Naya Kashmir’ with a focus on peace, development, and prosperity, the promised change did not convert into votes for the saffron party in the region.

7. Congress candidate and wrestler Vinesh Phogat won in Julana on her poll debut. The Olympian secured 64,548 votes and beat her nearest rival, BJP’s Yogesh Kumar, by 6,553 votes. Phogat was nominated by the Congress after her heartbreak at the Paris Olympics.

8. Staring at defeat in Haryana, the Congress lodged a complaint with the Election Commission alleging "inordinate and unacceptable delay in updating trends" on its website.

9. "Like the Lok Sabha elections, in Haryana we are again witnessing slowing down of uploading up-to-date trends on the ECI website. Is the BJP trying to build pressure on the administration by sharing outdated and misleading trends?" tweeted Congress leader Jairam Ramesh.

10. The Election Commission dismissed the Congress’s charge as unsubstantiated. In a strongly-worded statement, the EC said it "unequivocally rejects" the party’s attempt to "surreptitiously give credence to irresponsible, unfounded and uncorroborated malafide narratives".