Bihar, Karnataka, Bengal and Andhra face huge risk of becoming Covid-19 hotspots

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, Jul 27, 2020: Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar face the immediate risk of becoming the new hot spots of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in India, due to a rapid increase in new cases, rising positivity rates and (for the last two) low testing, according to data analysed.

 

To identify the new hot spots of the outbreak, HT analysed data from India’s 20 most populous regions, looking for three factors — a rising positivity rate, a high growth rate of daily cases, and low tests performed per million residents — that have marked all hot spots globally. These factors were also common to Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi, which became the clear hot spots in the first four months of the spread of the virus in the country.

Delhi is the only region in the country that has reported a clear turnaround with performance improving on the three parameters. Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu have both intensified their testing, but still have high positivity rates, and continue to report high case numbers.


Over the past month, several states appeared to stand out with poor numbers on at least one of the three factors — Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, West Bengal, Bihar, Kerala, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Odisha. Among them, four — Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar — have exhibited the most alarming numbers, and confront the immediate risk of the outbreak severely intensifying. 

To be sure, Telangana, UP and Gujarat, have improved their doubling rate in the above mentioned time period, but remain low on testing, which may have suppressed other Covid-19 statistics.


Rate of increase in cases

The rate of increase in daily cases can be denoted in what is known as doubling rate —the number of days it takes for a given number of infections to double.

Andhra Pradesh has the worst doubling rate of all states in the country, followed by Kerala and Karnataka (see chart). What is alarming is that a month ago, these states already had doubling rates much worse than the national average (19.3 days), and have dropped further down. In a month, Andhra Pradesh’s doubling rate dropped from 13.2 days to 7 days. For Kerala, the doubling rate fell from 28 days to 11 days and it dropped from 17 days to 11.5 days in Karnataka.

The next two states on the list – Jharkhand and Bihar – have both reported massive drops in their doubling rate. Jharkhand’s doubling rate fell from 30.9 days to 12.9 in a month, and Bihar’s, 27.9 days to 12.9. In the last 30 days, only five states — Delhi, Telangana, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and UP — have improved their doubling rate. Delhi has been, by far, the standout in this regard, with the doubling rate improving from 13 days to 76.6 days in a month.


courtesy: Hindustan Times