Elections’12: Neck and neck in Punjab; Congress ahead in Uttarakhand, Manipur

Mangaloretoday/ CNN-IBN

New Delhi, March 3: Punjab is locked in a close contest between the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP) alliance and the Congress, with the former ahead by a narrow margin, according to the latest post-poll survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in association with The Week and CNN-IBN. The ruling BJP seems to be on its way out in Uttarakhand with the Congress improving its performance, the survey suggests, while Manipur also looks set to return the Congress to power yet again.

It is dead heat in Punjab between the incumbent SAD-BJP alliance and their main opponent, the Congress party, with the former ahead by a whisker. According to the survey, the SAD-BJP is still expected finish on top again by retaining 51-63 seats, which is, however, much less than its 2007 tally of 68. Congress is projected to be a close second at 48-60 seats; its 2007 tally was 44. In a state where no ruling party has ever been voted back to power, the survey predicts that the incumbent SAD-BJP alliance (SAD+) will score 41 percent of the votes.

The People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) led by former SAD leader Manpreet Singh Badal may be the biggest gainer in Punjab this year. PPP, the new entrant on Punjab’s election scene, seems to be gaining the most in terms of votes, with nearly two-thirds of its expected 5 percent vote share comprising of previous SAD voters.

 

The personal popularity of Punjab’s incumbent Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal has remained as high as it was five years ago and he is yet again the most preferred choice for the post (38 percent). Capt Amarinder Singh of the Congress is a close second at 33 percent.

In Uttarakhand, there is a positive inclination among the voters towards the opposition Congress. The party is projected to win 31-41 seats, a massive improvement on its 2007 performance when it won 22. The ruling BJP, on the other hand, may end up with 22-32 seats as opposed to 34 in 2007. If the survey projections were to come true, then this would be the Congress’s best performance in terms of vote-share in the three Assembly elections in the state so far.

BJP’s efforts to neutralise anti-incumbency in Uttarakhand by reinstalling B C Khanduri as the chief minister six months ahead of state elections doesn’t seem to have paid off. While the incumbent BJP is expected to stay where it was five years ago in terms of vote-share (32 percent), its main opponent, the Congress, is projected to secure 39 percent of the votes, a massive gain of 9 percent compared to the last Assembly election in 2007.

The popularity of incumbent Chief Minister B C Khanduri, however, continues to be high. In fact, it is at its highest ever with Khanduri being the most preferred CM choice of 33 percent of the voters. Harish Rawat of the Congress is at the second spot with 13 percent of voters wanting him to be the next Chief Minister of Uttarakhand.

In Manipur, according to the survey, a divided opposition is likely to return the incumbent Congress party to power for a third consecutive term. In a 60-member Assembly, the Congress is projected to bag 24-32 seats; its 2007 tally was 30.

In a state where no party has ever managed to cross the majority mark, the Congress led by two terms Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh is projected to emerge on top once again with 30 percent of the votes. While Congress is down 4 percent compared to 2007, its main opponent - the People’s Demoractic Front (PDF), the grand anti-Congress alliance of five parties led by Manipur People’s Party (MPP) - is expected to secure only 13 percent of the votes.

On the crucial issue of Manipur’s territorial integrity, a huge 70 percent of the respondents said that Manipur should remain undivided and stay the way it is, and only 9 percent were of the opinion that the Naga dominated areas should be merged with Nagaland.

While there is no regional unanimity on the question of Manipur’s territorial integrity, there seems to be a broader consensus on the issue of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), which has been used almost uninterruptedly in the state since 1980. Nearly two-thirds of Manipur voters are of the opinion that it should not continue.