For every detected Covid case, India missed 90 infections: Study

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, Dec 17, 2020:    A recent study conducted by members of a panel formed by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) states that India had missed about 90 infections for every detected coronavirus case.

 

This is the same committee that developed the India-specific supermodel that predicted that the coronavirus pandemic will come under control more or less by February 2021 in the country.

Prof Manindra Agrawal, IIT Kanpur to India Today TV that the word “missed” implies an attempt was made and it was missed."

“The mathematical model through which some estimates have been made, it has not been crossed verified with the population of the country. But the model predicts about 60 per cent of people in India have been infected and they have developed antibodies.”

The model shows that Covid-19 seems to be affecting people severely in countries like Italy and the UK where the mortality has been higher as compared to in India. The ratio for such countries is 1:10 or 1:15. In India, most people who have been affected are asymptomatic cases and the average ratio is 1:90.

For instance, in Delhi and Kerela, the ratio is 1:25, which means for every one reported case there are 25 people who are getting infected but most of them are asymptomatic. During the first peak, Delhi saw 43 people getting infected for every one case, and during the third, the variation in ratio dropped to 1:21.

It may be noted that this ratio varies from one state to another and is not uniform across the whole country. In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the ratio of asymptomatic people is far more at 1:300.

Most states are in the range of 70-120.

Apart from Agrawal, the DST committee included professor M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, Dr Gagandeep Kang of CMC Vellore, professor Biman Bagchi of Indian Institute of Sciences, Bengaluru, professors Arup Bose and Sankar Paul of Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, and Lt Gen. Madhuri Kanitkar from the Ministry of Defence.

The latest study is yet to be published in a peer-review medical journal. The earlier findings were published in a pre-print article in the Indian Journal of Medical Research.

Courtesy:India Today