Global death toll due to Covid-19 three times higher than official statistics, study says

Mangalore Today News Network

New Delhi, Mar 11, 2022: The excess death toll due to the Covid-19 pandemic may have been three times higher than the reported deaths, a Lancet report suggested. Globally, official reports stated that between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021, about 6 million people have died directly because of Covid-19. But the new study estimates that the pandemic had a deadlier impact and the actual death toll may be close to 18.2 million.

 

The reason for under reporting may have under diagnosis due to insufficient testing or reporting challenges. Additionally, the higher mortality might also have been due to lack of access to health care, or behaviour changes during lockdown.

The study further noted that the gap between estimated excess mortality and reported Covid-19 deaths is much larger in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions. The differences shown between reported Covid-19 mortality and Covid-19-related excess mortality highlight the importance of the use of Covid-19-related excess mortality estimates in policy and in monitoring and evaluation efforts.

For the research, all-cause mortality reports were collected for 74 countries and territories and 266 sub-national locations (including 31 locations in low-income and middle-income countries) that had reported either weekly or monthly deaths from all causes during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and for up to 11 years previously.

Excess mortality over time was calculated as observed mortality, after excluding data from periods affected by late registration and anomalies such as heat waves, minus expected mortality. Six models were used to estimate expected mortality. The final estimates of expected mortality were based on an ensemble of these models.

According to the study, the number of excess deaths due to Covid-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to Covid-19 were estimated in India (4·07 million).

The report concluded that the estimates of Covid-19 excess mortality suggest the mortality impact from the pandemic has been more devastating than the situation documented by official statistics. The study added that the official statistics on reported Covid-19 deaths provide only a partial picture of the true burden of mortality.

The Lancet study suggested that strengthening death registration systems around the world, long understood to be crucial to global public health strategy, is necessary for improved monitoring of this pandemic and future pandemics. In addition, the study noted that further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.

Courtesy:India Today