Monsoon likely to arrive in Kerala on June 4: IMD

Mangalore Today News Network

Thiruvanantapuram, May 17, 2023: The south-west monsoon is likely to be delayed by three days from its usual schedule and arrive in Kerala on June 4 with a model error of +/-4 days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday in its forecast about the June to September rainy season that is vital to autumn harvest and keeping food price inflation in check.

 

In 2022, the monsoon arrived in Kerala three days ahead of the schedule. IMD last month said a “normal” monsoon with rainfall at 96% (with an error margin of +/-5%) of the long-period average (LPA) was expected this year.

LPA for the monsoon season between June to September is 87 cm based on the average from 1971 to 2020. There has been “normal” rainfall over the last four years.

The monsoon is critical to India’s economy as 51% of the country-farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed. As much as 47% of the country’s population is dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, according to this year’s Economic Survey. A bountiful monsoon has a direct correlation with a healthy rural economy.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet earlier said India could get below-normal monsoon rains in 2023, with an increased likelihood of El Nino, which typically brings dry weather to Asia.

El Nino could have an impact on monsoon rainfall in the second half of the season. But other factors such as sea temperature changes known as the Indian Ocean Dipole favour good rainfall.

IMD declares the arrival of the south-west monsoon after at least 60% of 14 weather stations in Lakshadweep and coastal Kerala report rainfall of 2.5mm or more for two consecutive days after May 10.

IMD on Tuesday said its operational forecasts of the date of the onset of monsoon in Kerala between 2005 and 2022 proved to be correct except in 2015. It last year said the monsoon, which brings about 70% of India’s annual rainfall, will arrive on May 27. But the actual onset was on May 29. In 2021, IMD forecast onset date was May 31. But it arrived on June 3. IMD in 2020 forecast onset to be on June 5 while the actual was on June 1.

The advance of the south-west monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset in Kerala. It is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry to the rainy season.

The monsoon progresses northward and brings relief from scorching summer temperatures. Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days.

Minimum temperatures in northwest India and pre-monsoon rainfall peaks in the south Peninsula are among the six predictors of monsoon onset used in the models.

Courtesy: Hindustan Times