SW monsoon to bring 98% rainfall says IMD in its revised forecast

Mangalore Today News Network

June 07, 2017: The arrival of the South-West monsoon in Karnataka has been fairly good, meteorological department (Met) officials said. "The South-West monsoon was supposed to arrive in Karnataka between June 1 and 5 and has fairly arrived.

Earlier, the KSNMDC had forecast monsoon to arrive in Karnataka by May 29.  Two circulations in the Arabian Sea reduced the intensity though. One of the circulations that is pulling the rain-bearing clouds away from the coast is expected to weaken. Pre-monsoon showers had brought the much-needed relief for people in Karnataka and also mitigated water scarcity in forest areas.

Monsoon season in 2017 :

India Meteorological Department on June 6, Tuesday maintained its forecast of a normal monsoon season in 2017 during which the country as a whole is likely to receive 98% of average rainfall between June and September.  The met agency also released the forecast for four regions, out of which central India is likely to receive 100% of its average rainfall and southern peninsula will get 99% rainfall. India’s average rainfall calculated over 50 years is 890 mm.

The forecast for the north east and north west India is 96% rainfall. Each forecast comes with a model error of 8% on either side.  The south-west monsoon is the lifeline for lakhs of farmers, growing summer crops like paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and coarse cereals.

The June forecast is actually an upgrade from the prediction issued by the met agency six weeks ago in which IMD had claimed 96% of average rainfall for the season. Both forecasts have an error margin of 4%.

The upward revision stems from the fact that ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions are likely to prevail for the remaining part of 2017. El Nino is an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean, leading to massive weather disruption all over the world. An El Nino year is generally associated with poor Indian summer monsoon.

“We expect monsoon distribution to be very good. The monsoon likely to reach Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal by June 13-14,” said IMD director general K J Ramesh.

According to the forecast, there is 50% probability of the south-west monsoon being normal while there is 28% chance of it becoming below normal, in which the rainfall will vary between 90-96% of the average. There are very slim chances of monsoon becoming “deficient” or “excess.”

The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96% of the average in July and 99% in August with a model error of 9 %, IMD says.