US Polls: Obama holds edge but surveys predict close contest

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Washington, Nov 5, 2012: As the presidential poll campaign in the US moves towards its climax, independent surveys predict that incumbent Barack Obama holds an edge over rival Mitt Romney, but the two are locked in a virtual tie in the crucial battleground states believed to be holding the key.

The prestigious Pew Research Center, in its latest opinion poll, said that Obama has edged Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign by holding a 48 per cent to 45 percent lead over Romney among likely voters.

According to Pew, Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account.

"Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50 per cent and Romney 47 per cent, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinions," Pew said.

A week ago the race was tied at 47 per cent for each candidate.
Interviewing for the final pre-election survey was conducted October 31 and November 3 among 2,709 likely voters, it said.

RealClearPolitics showed Obama leading by half a point in an average of all the major national polls, which is 0.3 point more than a day earlier.

However, it’s a dead heat between Obama and Romney, says the latest poll released by CNN/ORC with the two candidates tied at 49 percent each.

"Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned said they support the President, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor," the CNN/ORC International survey said.

According to C-Voter, Obama (49 per cent) leads Romney (48 per cent) by one point.
Obama and Romney are virtually deadlocked at 48 per cent in key swing states, according to the USA Today/Gallup poll, which shows a four-point bounce for the US President from their last poll of these States in early October, taken days after a disappointing first presidential debate.

A day earlier a Politico/George Washington University survey had it tied at 48 per cent.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll indicates Obama at 48 per cent and Romney at 47 per cent, while the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll puts Obama at 49 per cent and his Republican rival at 48 per cent.

All these surveys also indicate a gender gap for the two candidates.
While Obama has a lead among women voters, Romney is more popular among men voters.

"53 per cent of women saying they plan to vote for Obama compared to only 44 per cent of men. That works out to a nine-point gender gap, which would be the largest since 1996," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

"On age, Obama is getting less support among younger voters than he did four years ago. But he manages a tie with Governor Romney among senior citizens -- a group he lost to Senator McCain by eight points," she said.

According to the survey, Romney leads Obama 57 per cent-40 per cent among white voters.

Obama tops Romney 56 per cent-40 per cent among voters making less than USD 50,000 per year, with Romney holding a 52 per cent-47 per cent edge among those making more than USD 50,000 per year.

Women now favour Obama by a 13-point margin (53 per cent to 43 per cent) up from six points a week ago and reflecting a shift toward Obama since early October, Pew said.
Right after the first presidential debate, the women’s vote was split evenly (47 per cent each), it added.

Men, by comparison, favour Romney by a 50 per cent to 42 per cent margin, with little change in the past month, the poll revealed.

Also, Romney continues to lead among voters age 65 and older, by a nine point margin (51 per cent to 42 per cent) in the current survey. But that is only about half of the 19-point lead he held among seniors just a week ago.

Political moderates now favour Obama by 21 points (56 per cent-35 per cent).

Courtesy: Deccan Herald